Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.26 – 81.47

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.6 ±13.2

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 20.13Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 13.78Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 75.35Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.6 ±12.8

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 43.69Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 13.51Rank 32Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 24.27Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10428, 8242, 4481

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10428, 8242, 4481

Auto

16.7 16%

Teleop

60.2 59%

Endgame

25.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6431, 9601, 9233

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6431, 9601, 9233

Auto

9.7 12%

Teleop

41.7 53%

Endgame

27.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.3pts

Blue projected score81.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.8
Score range: 62–128
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 104.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.6Season APEX269.6

16.7Auto9.7

60.2Teleop41.7

25.5Endgame27.2

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	21
teleop	116	30
endgame	47	0
foul	5	0
total	222	51

Result

Final score

222 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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