Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.28 – 49.55

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

61 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.5 ±15.8

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 20.38Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 32.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 28.97Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±14.4

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 8.41Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 13.4Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9595ECHO

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 27.74Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11416, 11281, 8153

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11416, 11281, 8153

Auto

20.4 26%

Teleop

43.0 54%

Endgame

16.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7611, 4191, 9595

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7611, 4191, 9595

Auto

7.1 16%

Teleop

21.6 48%

Endgame

16.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.3pts

Blue projected score49.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.7
Score range: 31–101
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 105.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.5Season APEX228.7

20.4Auto7.1

43Teleop21.6

16.5Endgame16.7

0Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	13
teleop	37	32
endgame	9	9
foul	0	0
total	61	54

Result

Final score

61 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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