Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

55.65 – 21.92

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.1 ±15.2

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 8.38Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 45.67Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6064IstanBULLS

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 1.6Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.6 ±11.7

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 22.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 4.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -4.79Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9132, 3646, 6064

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9132, 3646, 6064

Auto

22.1 43%

Teleop

17.6 34%

Endgame

12.1 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5883, 11000, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5883, 11000, 9583

Auto

8.6 68%

Teleop

1.4 11%

Endgame

2.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.7pts

Blue projected score21.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.7
Score range: 3–75
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 113 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.1Season APEX212.6

22.1Auto8.6

17.6Teleop1.4

12.1Endgame2.7

39Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	15
teleop	38	21
endgame	8	8
foul	0	0
total	69	44

Result

Final score

69 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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