Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.42 – 308.64

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 142.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±10.4

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 52.77Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 60.31Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 84.34Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.7 ±14.1

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 289.08Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 21.07Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX -1.51Rank 32Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9077, 6431, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9077, 6431, 9029

Auto

33.4 17%

Teleop

118.5 61%

Endgame

43.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9483, 10308, 9601

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9483, 10308, 9601

Auto

64.2 21%

Teleop

187.1 61%

Endgame

56.0 18%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.4pts

Blue projected score308.6pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.2
Score range: 178–328
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 103.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.3Season APEX476.7

33.4Auto64.2

118.5Teleop187.1

43.5Endgame56

1Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	39
teleop	42	313
endgame	19	86
foul	0	20
total	62	458

Result

Final score

62 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 142.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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