Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.17 – 98.65

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.1 ±12.7

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 7.83Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 71.27Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 62.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.3 ±13.6

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 20.74Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 63.08Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 14.83Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11416, 9029, 4481

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11416, 9029, 4481

Auto

23.6 17%

Teleop

88.3 63%

Endgame

27.7 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5883, 6431, 8242

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5883, 6431, 8242

Auto

12.4 14%

Teleop

45.5 51%

Endgame

30.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.2pts

Blue projected score98.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.5
Score range: 81–159
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 101.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.1Season APEX251.3

23.6Auto12.4

88.3Teleop45.5

27.7Endgame30.6

35Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	28
teleop	169	33
endgame	43	21
foul	0	5
total	258	87

Result

Final score

258 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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