Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

25.93 – 18.64

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.4 ±16

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 13.04Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 22.65Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

7296TeRoBoT

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX -9.76Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.2 ±14.1

6064IstanBULLS

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -1.65Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX -0.68Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 20.97Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4191, 10308, 7296

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4191, 10308, 7296

Auto

4.6 20%

Teleop

8.1 35%

Endgame

10.7 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6064, 7611, 10043

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6064, 7611, 10043

Auto

7.4 47%

Teleop

0.7 4%

Endgame

7.5 48%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25.9pts

Blue projected score18.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.3
Score range: 1–44
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 101.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.4Season APEX145.2

4.6Auto7.4

8.1Teleop0.7

10.7Endgame7.5

23Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	10
teleop	19	41
endgame	16	23
foul	0	0
total	43	74

Result

Final score

43 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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