Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.25 – 78.64

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 92.6 ±13

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 1.49Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 21.42Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 8.34Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.2 ±16.4

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 28.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 40.62Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10050Sea Dragons

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 9.56Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9583, 9132, 8557

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9132, 8557

Auto

11.9 49%

Teleop

0.2 1%

Endgame

12.1 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11281, 7611, 10050

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11281, 7611, 10050

Auto

13.2 19%

Teleop

43.7 65%

Endgame

10.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31.3pts

Blue projected score78.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.4
Score range: 8–102
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 68 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

92.6Season APEX171.2

11.9Auto13.2

0.2Teleop43.7

12.1Endgame10.8

35Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	11
teleop	5	30
endgame	5	10
foul	0	0
total	17	51

Result

Final score

17 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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