Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.39 – 276.69

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 448

Prediction correct · off by 87 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 107.4 ±16.9

7296TeRoBoT

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX -9.35Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 24.54Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 21.2Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.7 ±14.9

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 273.99Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9595ECHO

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 12.48Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -9.78Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7296, 9233, 8242

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.4 pts

~0.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7296, 9233, 8242

Auto

-1.5 0%

Teleop

29.8 83%

Endgame

7.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9483, 9595, 8557

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9483, 9595, 8557

Auto

52.9 19%

Teleop

181.2 66%

Endgame

41.9 15%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.35 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.4pts

Blue projected score276.7pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -240.3
Score range: 19–294
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 95.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

107.4Season APEX476.7

-1.5Auto52.9

29.8Teleop181.2

7.7Endgame41.9

10Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	77
teleop	14	263
endgame	21	103
foul	0	5
total	39	448

Result

Final score

39 – 448

Prediction correct · off by 87 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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