Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.77 – 125.15

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

106 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311 ±11.6

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 17.77Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 64.83Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX -6.83Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.7 ±16

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 77.86Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10146ROBIS

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 20.9Rank 21Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 76

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 26.39Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8153, 6431, 7611

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8153, 6431, 7611

Auto

18.4 25%

Teleop

23.3 32%

Endgame

31.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9029, 10146, 10308

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 10146, 10308

Auto

22.8 18%

Teleop

71.1 58%

Endgame

29.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.8pts

Blue projected score125.2pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.4
Score range: 59–142
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 95.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311Season APEX276.7

18.4Auto22.8

23.3Teleop71.1

31.8Endgame29.5

41Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	38
teleop	74	62
endgame	5	6
foul	5	0
total	106	106

Result

Final score

106 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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