Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.75 – 10.11

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

62 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.2 ±14.6

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 26.21Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 29.08Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11036ALEV ROBOTICS

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 36.46Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 119.1 ±13.7

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 4.9Rank 32Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 4.44Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 0.77Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11244, 5883, 11036

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11244, 5883, 11036

Auto

14.3 19%

Teleop

34.6 46%

Endgame

27.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9601, 9583, 11416

/ 100 compat

Projected

10.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9601, 9583, 11416

Auto

4.1 45%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

5.1 55%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.8pts

Blue projected score10.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.6
Score range: -7–109
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 95.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.2Season APEX119.1

14.3Auto4.1

34.6Teleop0

27Endgame5.1

74Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	6
teleop	26	19
endgame	13	13
foul	5	0
total	62	38

Result

Final score

62 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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