Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.71 – 92.01

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308 ±11

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 1.22Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 42.88Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 4.61Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.1 ±13.9

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 58.16Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 5.47Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 28.38Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4191, 9077, 10428

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4191, 9077, 10428

Auto

-2.8 0%

Teleop

40.7 100%

Endgame

-0.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3646, 10141, 9233

/ 100 compat

Projected

92 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3646, 10141, 9233

Auto

14.9 17%

Teleop

51.9 59%

Endgame

20.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score48.7pts

Blue projected score92pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.3
Score range: 32–109
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 95.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308Season APEX234.1

-2.8Auto14.9

40.7Teleop51.9

-0.2Endgame20.6

20Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	22
teleop	53	51
endgame	47	14
foul	0	0
total	115	87

Result

Final score

115 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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