Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.48 – 99.29

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99.8 ±16.2

6064IstanBULLS

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 4.78Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -9.8Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 19.5Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.7 ±16.7

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 82.81Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10050Sea Dragons

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 16.02Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9595ECHO

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 0.46Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6064, 8557, 8242

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6064, 8557, 8242

Auto

1.9 26%

Teleop

-2.1 0%

Endgame

7.5 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6436, 10050, 9595

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6436, 10050, 9595

Auto

18.7 18%

Teleop

59.1 58%

Endgame

24.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score14.5pts

Blue projected score99.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.8
Score range: -3–116
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 95.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99.8Season APEX304.7

1.9Auto18.7

-2.1Teleop59.1

7.5Endgame24.2

56Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	30
teleop	13	123
endgame	5	38
foul	0	0
total	27	191

Result

Final score

27 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 52.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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