Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.66 – 46.23

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.5 ±16.2

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 17.72Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 19.68Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 21.26Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.7 ±15.1

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 44.75Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 14.42Rank 32Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -12.94Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8242, 10308, 11244

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8242, 10308, 11244

Auto

14.8 24%

Teleop

26.9 44%

Endgame

20.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11281, 9601, 8557

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11281, 9601, 8557

Auto

8.1 22%

Teleop

23.1 63%

Endgame

5.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.7pts

Blue projected score46.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.4
Score range: 30–75
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 88.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.5Season APEX149.7

14.8Auto8.1

26.9Teleop23.1

20Endgame5.5

47Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	10
teleop	58	18
endgame	22	16
foul	15	0
total	114	44

Result

Final score

114 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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