Qualification · Qualification 28
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
63.01 – 32.66
59%41%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
57 – 64
Prediction missed · off by 18.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.8 ±15.3
Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 33.92Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 70Event APEX 25.87Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 3.22Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.1 ±15.3
Season APEX 65Event APEX 16.13Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 5.05Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 11.48Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9233, 8153, 9595
45
/ 100 compatProjected
63 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 9233, 8153, 9595
Auto
19.9 32%
Teleop
20.7 34%
Endgame
21.1 34%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10428, 10064, 10050
34
/ 100 compatProjected
32.7 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 10428, 10064, 10050
Auto
2.4 9%
Teleop
15.4 55%
Endgame
10.3 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.14
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score63pts
Blue projected score32.7pts
Red win probability59%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 22%, blue 28%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 30.4
- Score range
- 17–79
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
171.8Season APEX157.1
19.9Auto2.4
20.7Teleop15.4
21.1Endgame10.3
61Consistency125
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 13 |
| teleop | 35 | 36 |
| endgame | 5 | 15 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 57 | 64 |
Result
Final score
57 – 64
Prediction missed · off by 18.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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