Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.95 – 87.48

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

62 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.2 ±12.9

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 76.44Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 11.02Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX -13.51Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.8 ±10.5

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 19.08Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 14.07Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 54.33Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9029, 10141, 7611

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 10141, 7611

Auto

4.9 7%

Teleop

53.7 76%

Endgame

12.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10043, 9583, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 9583, 9077

Auto

8.6 11%

Teleop

46.0 58%

Endgame

25.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73.9pts

Blue projected score87.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.5
Score range: 58–103
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 91.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.2Season APEX211.8

4.9Auto8.6

53.7Teleop46

12.1Endgame25.2

96Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	8
teleop	36	33
endgame	8	11
foul	0	0
total	62	52

Result

Final score

62 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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