Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.87 – 120.73

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.7 ±16

6064IstanBULLS

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 20.06Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 91.72Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7296TeRoBoT

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX -7.91Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.1 ±11.7

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 24.13Rank 32Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 39.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 57.04Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6064, 6431, 7296

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6064, 6431, 7296

Auto

7.6 7%

Teleop

61.1 58%

Endgame

37.0 35%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9601, 4481, 3646

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9601, 4481, 3646

Auto

25.3 22%

Teleop

69.7 60%

Endgame

21.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.9pts

Blue projected score120.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.9
Score range: 87–138
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 73 vs event baseline 93.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.7Season APEX474.1

7.6Auto25.3

61.1Teleop69.7

37Endgame21.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	14
teleop	7	23
endgame	1	3
foul	0	10
total	23	50

Result

Final score

23 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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