Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.31 – 66.17

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 100.4 ±17.9

10050Sea Dragons

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 17.78Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 9.41Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 25.12Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332 ±13.9

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 37.4Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 16.26Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 12.51Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10050, 11416, 8242

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10050, 11416, 8242

Auto

12.3 24%

Teleop

27.6 53%

Endgame

12.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9233, 11000, 11244

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9233, 11000, 11244

Auto

7.2 13%

Teleop

39.9 72%

Endgame

8.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.3pts

Blue projected score66.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.9
Score range: 35–83
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 95.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

100.4Season APEX332

12.3Auto7.2

27.6Teleop39.9

12Endgame8.1

86Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	18
teleop	13	30
endgame	16	20
foul	0	0
total	33	68

Result

Final score

33 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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