Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.93 – 83.98

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.9 ±16.4

11036ALEV ROBOTICS

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 29.86Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79

9595ECHO

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX -8.09Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 18.16Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.8 ±12.2

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 39.42Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 49.96Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -5.4Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11036, 9595, 10428

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11036, 9595, 10428

Auto

7.3 21%

Teleop

13.4 39%

Endgame

13.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5883, 9077, 8557

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5883, 9077, 8557

Auto

6.9 10%

Teleop

41.5 62%

Endgame

18.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score39.9pts

Blue projected score84pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.1
Score range: 23–101
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 98 vs event baseline 97.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.9Season APEX278.8

7.3Auto6.9

13.4Teleop41.5

13.4Endgame18.6

73Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	6
teleop	14	23
endgame	13	8
foul	5	15
total	46	52

Result

Final score

46 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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