Qualification · Qualification 23
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
65 – 1.8
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
73 – 21
Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 130.3 ±16.8
Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 10.99Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 10.52Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 37Event APEX 43.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 64.6 ±16.3
Season APEX 24.2Event APEX -5.81Rank 21Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 0.87Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 6.74Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10141, 10308, 11281
42
/ 100 compatProjected
65 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 10141, 10308, 11281
Auto
21.3 34%
Teleop
38.2 61%
Endgame
3.6 6%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10146, 10064, 9132
11
/ 100 compatProjected
1.8 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 10146, 10064, 9132
Auto
4.2 0%
Teleop
-20.9 100%
Endgame
14.9 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 0.89
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score65pts
Blue projected score1.8pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 17%, blue 21%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 63.2
- Score range
- -16–83
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
130.3Season APEX64.6
21.3Auto4.2
38.2Teleop-20.9
3.6Endgame14.9
40Consistency210
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 11 |
| teleop | 35 | 7 |
| endgame | 26 | 3 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 73 | 21 |
Result
Final score
73 – 21
Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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