Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.95 – 0.49

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.2 ±12.2

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 40.04Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 70.39Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 14.52Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.8 ±15.8

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -15.68Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 8.73Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10050Sea Dragons

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 7.44Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9077, 3646, 11000

/ 100 compat

Projected

125 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9077, 3646, 11000

Auto

19.5 16%

Teleop

74.7 61%

Endgame

28.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8557, 11244, 10050

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8557, 11244, 10050

Auto

-0.7 0%

Teleop

11.5 85%

Endgame

2.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125pts

Blue projected score0.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.5
Score range: -17–142
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 91.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.2Season APEX276.8

19.5Auto-0.7

74.7Teleop11.5

28.5Endgame2.7

81Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	10
teleop	76	10
endgame	17	0
foul	20	20
total	128	40

Result

Final score

128 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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