Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.48 – 104.76

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.4 ±13.3

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX -3.74Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX -9.12Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 29.34Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±15.7

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 63.55Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10146ROBIS

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 1.22Rank 21Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 76

6064IstanBULLS

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 39.99Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10064, 7611, 9233

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10064, 7611, 9233

Auto

-6.3 0%

Teleop

10.6 66%

Endgame

11.7 73%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4481, 10146, 6064

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4481, 10146, 6064

Auto

15.5 17%

Teleop

37.7 42%

Endgame

37.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.77 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score16.5pts

Blue projected score104.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.3
Score range: -1–122
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 49 vs event baseline 95.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.4Season APEX342.6

-6.3Auto15.5

10.6Teleop37.7

11.7Endgame37.6

131Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	6
teleop	9	19
endgame	5	5
foul	0	0
total	19	30

Result

Final score

19 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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