Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.27 – 144.23

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230 ±15.7

6064IstanBULLS

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 2.87Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 34.95Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 23.45Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±14.1

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 86.94Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 33.77Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11036ALEV ROBOTICS

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 23.52Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6064, 11244, 10141

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6064, 11244, 10141

Auto

19.8 39%

Teleop

16.1 31%

Endgame

15.5 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9029, 9233, 11036

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 9233, 11036

Auto

30.9 21%

Teleop

84.1 58%

Endgame

30.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.3pts

Blue projected score144.2pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83
Score range: 38–167
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230Season APEX320.8

19.8Auto30.9

16.1Teleop84.1

15.5Endgame30.9

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	17
teleop	17	82
endgame	3	35
foul	0	0
total	28	134

Result

Final score

28 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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