Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.81 – 272.39

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.7 ±12.9

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 4.88Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 50.98Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 30.95Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 600.2 ±13.1

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 20.3Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 201.84Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 50.25Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10141, 6436, 8153

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10141, 6436, 8153

Auto

12.8 15%

Teleop

48.4 56%

Endgame

25.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8242, 9483, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8242, 9483, 9029

Auto

46.4 17%

Teleop

185.7 69%

Endgame

36.6 14%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.48 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.8pts

Blue projected score272.4pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -185.6
Score range: 71–288
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 87.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.7Season APEX600.2

12.8Auto46.4

48.4Teleop185.7

25.9Endgame36.6

97Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	66
teleop	64	239
endgame	25	57
foul	0	0
total	104	362

Result

Final score

104 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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