Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

4.6 – 121.16

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 109.6 ±17.5

7296TeRoBoT

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX -5.99Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9595ECHO

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX -0.24Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 10.83Rank 32Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221 ±13.6

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 1.77Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 50.34Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 69.05Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7296, 9595, 9601

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.6 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7296, 9595, 9601

Auto

-1.2 0%

Teleop

20.8 100%

Endgame

-15.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4191, 5883, 11281

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4191, 5883, 11281

Auto

24.5 22%

Teleop

68.9 61%

Endgame

18.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.64 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score4.6pts

Blue projected score121.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.6
Score range: -11–137
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 90.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

109.6Season APEX221

-1.2Auto24.5

20.8Teleop68.9

-15.5Endgame18.8

62Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	7
teleop	5	19
endgame	10	17
foul	0	30
total	22	73

Result

Final score

22 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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