Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.46 – 64.24

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

60 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.5 ±14.1

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 15.55Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 42.56Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 23.35Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 81.6 ±16.8

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 18.21Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

11036ALEV ROBOTICS

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 40.78Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 5.25Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10043, 10428, 10308

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 10428, 10308

Auto

10.2 14%

Teleop

42.0 60%

Endgame

18.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11416, 11036, 9132

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11416, 11036, 9132

Auto

17.7 25%

Teleop

32.8 46%

Endgame

20.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.5pts

Blue projected score64.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.2
Score range: 47–98
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 92.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.5Season APEX81.6

10.2Auto17.7

42Teleop32.8

18.3Endgame20.9

4Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	19	16
endgame	21	8
foul	0	15
total	60	60

Result

Final score

60 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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