Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.16 – 180.68

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503 ±11.2

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 51.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 28.81Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 33.11Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.3 ±13.6

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 1.2Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6064IstanBULLS

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 18.96Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 160.52Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4481, 9233, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4481, 9233, 9077

Auto

11.5 10%

Teleop

60.7 55%

Endgame

38.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8153, 6064, 9483

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8153, 6064, 9483

Auto

39.4 22%

Teleop

125.9 71%

Endgame

11.1 6%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.2pts

Blue projected score180.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.5
Score range: 98–196
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 82.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503Season APEX466.3

11.5Auto39.4

60.7Teleop125.9

38.5Endgame11.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	63
teleop	99	186
endgame	19	73
foul	10	5
total	146	327

Result

Final score

146 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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