Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.64 – 25.24

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.5 ±11

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 74.66Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX -11.47Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 49.45Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.3 ±15.1

9595ECHO

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX -9.07Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 7.33Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 26.98Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3646, 4191, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3646, 4191, 6431

Auto

35.1 32%

Teleop

59.3 54%

Endgame

15.3 14%

Strengths

· 3646 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9595, 10141, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9595, 10141, 9583

Auto

0.2 1%

Teleop

8.1 39%

Endgame

12.7 60%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.6pts

Blue projected score25.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.4
Score range: 10–128
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 81.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.5Season APEX115.3

35.1Auto0.2

59.3Teleop8.1

15.3Endgame12.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	6
teleop	74	15
endgame	52	8
foul	0	5
total	143	34

Result

Final score

143 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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