Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.57 – 23.75

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126 ±17.1

10146ROBIS

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 3.06Rank 21Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 76

7296TeRoBoT

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 32.68Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 53.83Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 91.5 ±17.4

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 8.4Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83

10050Sea Dragons

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX -10.9Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10308HiveMind

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 26.25Rank 17Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10146, 7296, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10146, 7296, 5883

Auto

9.6 12%

Teleop

55.2 71%

Endgame

13.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9132, 10050, 10308

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9132, 10050, 10308

Auto

5.9 23%

Teleop

9.6 37%

Endgame

10.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.6pts

Blue projected score23.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.8
Score range: 9–105
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 85.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126Season APEX91.5

9.6Auto5.9

55.2Teleop9.6

13.3Endgame10.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	22
teleop	21	11
endgame	9	8
foul	0	0
total	30	41

Result

Final score

30 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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