Qualification · Qualification 13
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
93.87 – 20.51
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
30 – 21
Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.7 ±14.6
Season APEX 87Event APEX 0.15Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 49.8Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 43.92Rank 32Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.9 ±15.1
Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 2.04Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 22.15Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 44.9Event APEX -3.68Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7611, 11036, 9601
65
/ 100 compatProjected
93.9 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 7611, 11036, 9601
Auto
5.7 6%
Teleop
57.6 62%
Endgame
29.0 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11000, 11416, 10064
17
/ 100 compatProjected
20.5 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 11000, 11416, 10064
Auto
0.1 1%
Teleop
-0.4 0%
Endgame
15.2 100%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 0.85
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score93.9pts
Blue projected score20.5pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 25%, blue 23%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 73.4
- Score range
- 5–110
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
188.7Season APEX178.9
5.7Auto0.1
57.6Teleop-0.4
29Endgame15.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 6 | 2 |
| teleop | 18 | 3 |
| endgame | 6 | 16 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 30 | 21 |
Result
Final score
30 – 21
Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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