Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.36 – 94.43

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.9 ±13.6

11281Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 88.07Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 10.24Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 42.05Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.3 ±12.2

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -7.62Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 43.78Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 58.27Rank 3Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11281, 10043, 6436

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11281, 10043, 6436

Auto

29.1 22%

Teleop

79.1 59%

Endgame

25.8 19%

Strengths

· 11281 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8557, 10428, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8557, 10428, 9029

Auto

10.3 12%

Teleop

62.5 72%

Endgame

14.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.4pts

Blue projected score94.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.9
Score range: 78–156
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 89.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.9Season APEX331.3

29.1Auto10.3

79.1Teleop62.5

25.8Endgame14

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	9
teleop	69	50
endgame	39	11
foul	5	5
total	128	75

Result

Final score

128 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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