Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
16.11 – 17.63
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
48 – 75
Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 84.2 ±15.2
Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 22.48Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 70Event APEX -7.77Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 1.4Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 83
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.3 ±14.9
Season APEX 36.3Event APEX -25.9Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 167Event APEX 7.44Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 154Event APEX 36.09Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8242, 8153, 9132
14
/ 100 compatProjected
16.1 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 8242, 8153, 9132
Auto
5.9 58%
Teleop
-1.8 0%
Endgame
6.1 60%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 21%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9595, 11244, 6431
15
/ 100 compatProjected
17.6 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 9595, 11244, 6431
Auto
7.1 33%
Teleop
-2.4 0%
Endgame
16.6 78%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 21%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.31
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score16.1pts
Blue projected score17.6pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 21%, blue 24%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -1.5
- Score range
- -1–35
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
84.2Season APEX357.3
5.9Auto7.1
-1.8Teleop-2.4
6.1Endgame16.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 20 |
| teleop | 14 | 36 |
| endgame | 12 | 19 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 48 | 75 |
Result
Final score
48 – 75
Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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