Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
6.51 – 5.97
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
9 – 70
Prediction missed · off by 33.3 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.7 ±14.9
Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 35.94Rank 32Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 47.2Event APEX -20.36Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 105.4Event APEX -9.07Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168 ±13.9
Season APEX 44.9Event APEX -17.54Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -8.48Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 31.99Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9601, 10050, 4191
10
/ 100 compatProjected
6.5 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 9601, 10050, 4191
Auto
0.3 0%
Teleop
-5.0 100%
Endgame
1.7 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10064, 10141, 5883
10
/ 100 compatProjected
6 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 10064, 10141, 5883
Auto
4.7 68%
Teleop
-4.9 0%
Endgame
7.1 100%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.21
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score6.5pts
Blue projected score6pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 23%, blue 18%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 0.5
- Score range
- -12–25
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
202.7Season APEX168
0.3Auto4.7
-5Teleop-4.9
1.7Endgame7.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 0 | 4 |
| teleop | 7 | 24 |
| endgame | 2 | 27 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 9 | 70 |
Result
Final score
9 – 70
Prediction missed · off by 33.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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