Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.33 – 53.61

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

46 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.7 ±15.3

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 28.2Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 1.92Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10146ROBIS

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 9.21Rank 21Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.8 ±13.6

8242Tekno NFL

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 21.73Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 20.54Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 11.34Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10428, 11000, 10146

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10428, 11000, 10146

Auto

9.2 30%

Teleop

17.9 58%

Endgame

3.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8242, 4191, 10043

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8242, 4191, 10043

Auto

7.8 16%

Teleop

20.3 41%

Endgame

21.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score39.3pts

Blue projected score53.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.3
Score range: 16–77
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 68 vs event baseline 127.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.7Season APEX163.8

9.2Auto7.8

17.9Teleop20.3

3.6Endgame21

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	0
teleop	14	1
endgame	12	6
foul	15	15
total	46	22

Result

Final score

46 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 19.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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