Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

704.41 – 108.89

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

769 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 860 ±11.7

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 397.46Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 8.24Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 298.71Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±13.3

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 43.94Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 31.05Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 33.9Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9483, 8158, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

704.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9483, 8158, 6459

Auto

112.2 16%

Teleop

418.5 61%

Endgame

158.6 23%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10234, 10604, 9024

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~0.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10234, 10604, 9024

Auto

13.3 12%

Teleop

59.4 56%

Endgame

33.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score704.4pts

Blue projected score108.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 595.5
Score range: 85–728
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 911 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

860Season APEX222.6

112.2Auto13.3

418.5Teleop59.4

158.6Endgame33.9

0Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	17
teleop	452	53
endgame	187	72
foul	5	0
total	769	142

Result

Final score

769 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Match videos

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