Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.05 – 82.26

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.9 ±20.8

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 49.06Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8264ATA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 6.87Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 25.12Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.3 ±13.3

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 8.13Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7748TECHTOLIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 42.66Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 31.47Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10415, 8264, 10932

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10415, 8264, 10932

Auto

19.3 25%

Teleop

44.2 57%

Endgame

14.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7576, 7748, 8084

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7576, 7748, 8084

Auto

11.7 17%

Teleop

31.3 46%

Endgame

25.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.1pts

Blue projected score82.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.2
Score range: 57–106
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 134.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.9Season APEX196.3

19.3Auto11.7

44.2Teleop31.3

14.3Endgame25.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	17	28
endgame	12	45
foul	0	0
total	47	91

Result

Final score

47 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Match videos

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