Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.63 – 114.46

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 107.1 ±20.8

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 3.79Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11303BEZOAR ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 22.87Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9264HUNTERS ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 26.1Event APEX 13.97Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±16.3

7439Qubit Robotics

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 37.04Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 4.43Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 72.99Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8263, 11303, 9264

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8263, 11303, 9264

Auto

3.6 9%

Teleop

21.3 55%

Endgame

13.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7439, 11371, 10951

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7439, 11371, 10951

Auto

22.4 21%

Teleop

61.4 58%

Endgame

22.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score40.6pts

Blue projected score114.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.8
Score range: 17–138
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

107.1Season APEX212.7

3.6Auto22.4

21.3Teleop61.4

13.9Endgame22.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	18
teleop	7	43
endgame	3	25
foul	0	5
total	26	91

Result

Final score

26 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Match videos

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