Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.93 – 102.77

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±16.3

7439Qubit Robotics

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 38.2Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 5.29Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 73.44Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±13.3

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 40.87Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 29.24Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 32.66Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7439, 11371, 10951

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7439, 11371, 10951

Auto

25.4 23%

Teleop

65.6 61%

Endgame

17.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10234, 10604, 9024

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10234, 10604, 9024

Auto

9.7 10%

Teleop

52.8 53%

Endgame

37.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.9pts

Blue projected score102.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.2
Score range: 78–142
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.7Season APEX222.6

25.4Auto9.7

65.6Teleop52.8

17.2Endgame37

0Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	23
teleop	51	69
endgame	34	26
foul	5	0
total	109	118

Result

Final score

109 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 11.6 pts

Match videos

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