Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.38 – 114.58

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±13.6

7536ANKA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 71.7Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 70.57Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 16.11Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±13.3

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 46.18Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 32.12Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 36.28Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7536, 9545, 6232

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7536, 9545, 6232

Auto

32.1 22%

Teleop

84.5 57%

Endgame

32.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10234, 10604, 9024

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10234, 10604, 9024

Auto

15.2 14%

Teleop

55.5 52%

Endgame

36.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score158.4pts

Blue projected score114.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.8
Score range: 89–184
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.6Season APEX222.6

32.1Auto15.2

84.5Teleop55.5

32.4Endgame36.2

34Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	17
teleop	144	54
endgame	57	20
foul	15	0
total	253	91

Result

Final score

253 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Match videos

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