Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

717.76 – 336.43

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

672 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 860 ±11.7

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 401.93Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 12.23Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 303.6Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.6 ±13.1

11382INTERHERMES

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 19.15Rank 37Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 213.34Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 103.94Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9483, 8158, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

717.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9483, 8158, 6459

Auto

114.6 16%

Teleop

425.3 60%

Endgame

164.5 23%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11382, 10131, 9692

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.4 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11382, 10131, 9692

Auto

51.4 16%

Teleop

191.2 58%

Endgame

85.0 26%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score717.8pts

Blue projected score336.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 381.3
Score range: 311–743
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 938 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

860Season APEX504.6

114.6Auto51.4

425.3Teleop191.2

164.5Endgame85

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	16
teleop	451	129
endgame	172	121
foul	20	0
total	672	266

Result

Final score

672 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts

Match videos

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