Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.16 – 108.85

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±13.6

7536ANKA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 70.44Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 69.97Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 15.75Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±16.3

7439Qubit Robotics

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 34.83Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 2.2Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 71.82Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7536, 9545, 6232

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7536, 9545, 6232

Auto

31.0 21%

Teleop

80.2 55%

Endgame

33.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7439, 11371, 10951

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7439, 11371, 10951

Auto

20.2 20%

Teleop

58.4 58%

Endgame

22.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.2pts

Blue projected score108.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.3
Score range: 84–181
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.6Season APEX212.7

31Auto20.2

80.2Teleop58.4

33.6Endgame22.5

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	20
teleop	104	76
endgame	29	42
foul	0	10
total	167	148

Result

Final score

167 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Match videos

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