Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.07 – 44.91

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.6 ±20.8

11404The Power of Skopje

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 14.57Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 58.93Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7439Qubit Robotics

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 20.57Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.9 ±19.3

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 7.17Rank 40Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7758MEVOLUTION

Provisional

Season APEX 17.2Event APEX 9.88Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 27.86Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11404, 8263, 7439

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11404, 8263, 7439

Auto

14.1 16%

Teleop

37.1 41%

Endgame

38.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10906, 7758, 9692

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10906, 7758, 9692

Auto

9.1 21%

Teleop

20.1 47%

Endgame

14.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score44.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.2
Score range: 21–118
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 133.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.6Season APEX214.9

14.1Auto9.1

37.1Teleop20.1

38.3Endgame14

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	5
teleop	3	39
endgame	3	46
foul	5	10
total	19	100

Result

Final score

19 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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