Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

64.45 – 33.43

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±22

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 6.29Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6415Gultepe Robotics Team 6415

Provisional

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 55.02Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10675Energize

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 3.14Rank 25Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.3 ±19.4

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 3.14Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8264ATA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 2.86Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8784HEVSEL

Provisional

Season APEX 18.8Event APEX 27.43Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7298, 6415, 10675

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7298, 6415, 10675

Auto

12.2 20%

Teleop

21.2 36%

Endgame

26.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8158, 8264, 8784

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8158, 8264, 8784

Auto

5.4 17%

Teleop

16.6 52%

Endgame

10.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.5pts

Blue projected score33.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31
Score range: 6–91
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 65 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.6Season APEX265.3

12.2Auto5.4

21.2Teleop16.6

26.3Endgame10

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	0
teleop	13	15
endgame	2	18
foul	5	0
total	32	33

Result

Final score

32 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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