Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.62 – 86.83

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 83.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.9 ±16

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 38.63Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 54.81Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 84.18Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.5 ±18.7

9264HUNTERS ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 26.1Event APEX 3.27Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6415Gultepe Robotics Team 6415

Provisional

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX -7.27Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 90.83Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10604, 10415, 10951

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10604, 10415, 10951

Auto

25.2 15%

Teleop

93.1 54%

Endgame

55.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9264, 6415, 9692

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9264, 6415, 9692

Auto

9.4 12%

Teleop

42.1 55%

Endgame

25.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score177.6pts

Blue projected score86.8pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.8
Score range: 63–202
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 132.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.9Season APEX267.5

25.2Auto9.4

93.1Teleop42.1

55Endgame25.7

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	28
teleop	67	79
endgame	6	37
foul	5	25
total	93	169

Result

Final score

93 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 83.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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