Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

49.28 – 44.77

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 95.2 ±20

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 37.4Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8784HEVSEL

Provisional

Season APEX 18.8Event APEX 5.64Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8092Greatest of All Times

Provisional

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 6.24Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.9 ±19

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 26.91Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 27.5Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11404The Power of Skopje

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -9.64Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9024, 8784, 8092

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9024, 8784, 8092

Auto

7.6 17%

Teleop

19.8 44%

Endgame

17.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10932, 8084, 11404

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10932, 8084, 11404

Auto

13.2 27%

Teleop

11.4 23%

Endgame

24.4 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.3pts

Blue projected score44.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.5
Score range: 21–73
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 134.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

95.2Season APEX166.9

7.6Auto13.2

19.8Teleop11.4

17.8Endgame24.4

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	30
teleop	7	14
endgame	9	1
foul	0	5
total	30	50

Result

Final score

30 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 12.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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