Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

251.63 – 351.05

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 109.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.9 ±14.9

7439Qubit Robotics

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 33.53Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 200.4Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 17.7Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.8 ±16.9

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 327.78Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 21.24Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7758MEVOLUTION

Provisional

Season APEX 17.2Event APEX 2.03Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7439, 10131, 8158

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7439, 10131, 8158

Auto

31.0 13%

Teleop

143.6 61%

Endgame

59.4 25%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6459, 9043, 7758

/ 100 compat

Projected

351 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6459, 9043, 7758

Auto

46.5 14%

Teleop

208.6 61%

Endgame

87.8 26%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score251.6pts

Blue projected score351pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.4
Score range: 228–375
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.9Season APEX415.8

31Auto46.5

143.6Teleop208.6

59.4Endgame87.8

48Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	53
teleop	180	95
endgame	67	32
foul	0	0
total	299	180

Result

Final score

299 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 109.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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