Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

458.83 – 19.8

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

474 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.1 ±16.4

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 406.3Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11389ŞAL RoboRage

Provisional

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 12.96Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7748TECHTOLIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 39.57Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.7 ±20

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -4.41Rank 40Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 15.02Rank 39Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10425WhiteFox

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 9.19Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9483, 11389, 7748

/ 100 compat

Projected

458.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9483, 11389, 7748

Auto

78.7 18%

Teleop

256.8 59%

Endgame

99.0 23%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10906, 10542, 10425

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.8 pts

~0.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10906, 10542, 10425

Auto

11.9 72%

Teleop

-0.3 0%

Endgame

5.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score458.8pts

Blue projected score19.8pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 439
Score range: -4–483
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 130.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.1Season APEX131.7

78.7Auto11.9

256.8Teleop-0.3

99Endgame5

48Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	21
teleop	301	7
endgame	81	5
foul	10	20
total	474	53

Result

Final score

474 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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