Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32 – 37.02

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.9 ±19.4

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 3.48Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11303BEZOAR ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 19.83Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7035MEF Thunders

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 8.69Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.1 ±18.4

9694TUBITECH

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 14.34Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 12.96Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 9.72Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7576, 11303, 7035

/ 100 compat

Projected

32 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7576, 11303, 7035

Auto

8.9 29%

Teleop

27.6 91%

Endgame

-6.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9694, 6232, 7298

/ 100 compat

Projected

37 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9694, 6232, 7298

Auto

20.2 79%

Teleop

11.3 44%

Endgame

-6.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score32pts

Blue projected score37pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5
Score range: 8–61
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 67 vs event baseline 132.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.9Season APEX143.1

8.9Auto20.2

27.6Teleop11.3

-6.1Endgame-6

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	24
teleop	8	15
endgame	0	4
foul	5	0
total	24	43

Result

Final score

24 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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