Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.6 – 58.2

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

72 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241 ±18.4

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 30.98Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10425WhiteFox

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 11.91Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7439Qubit Robotics

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 39.71Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.3 ±22

10623AY YILDIZ ROBOTİM

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 21.14Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11404The Power of Skopje

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -8.6Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 45.66Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10604, 10425, 7439

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10604, 10425, 7439

Auto

18.1 25%

Teleop

40.4 55%

Endgame

15.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10623, 11404, 10415

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10623, 11404, 10415

Auto

10.9 20%

Teleop

36.1 67%

Endgame

6.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.6pts

Blue projected score58.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.4
Score range: 31–110
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 152.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241Season APEX163.3

18.1Auto10.9

40.4Teleop36.1

15.2Endgame6.6

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	16
teleop	42	24
endgame	23	11
foul	0	0
total	72	51

Result

Final score

72 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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