Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.76 – 15.45

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342 ±16.2

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 48.67Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 42.42Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 14.67Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 104 ±22

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 11.81Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8784HEVSEL

Provisional

Season APEX 18.8Event APEX 9.54Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -5.9Rank 40Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10415, 9545, 9043

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10415, 9545, 9043

Auto

29.8 31%

Teleop

52.0 54%

Endgame

15.0 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7298, 8784, 10906

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7298, 8784, 10906

Auto

12.2 100%

Teleop

-7.1 0%

Endgame

-4.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.8pts

Blue projected score15.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.3
Score range: -9–130
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 133.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342Season APEX104

29.8Auto12.2

52Teleop-7.1

15Endgame-4.7

59Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	16
teleop	91	12
endgame	51	6
foul	0	0
total	163	34

Result

Final score

163 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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