Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.11 – 329.19

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.2 ±17.2

6415Gultepe Robotics Team 6415

Provisional

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 2.12Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 12.09Rank 39Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 9.9Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.5 ±17.5

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 234.63Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11404The Power of Skopje

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 7.32Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7536ANKA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 87.24Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6415, 10542, 7576

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.1 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6415, 10542, 7576

Auto

6.7 52%

Teleop

-0.2 0%

Endgame

6.3 49%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10131, 11404, 7536

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10131, 11404, 7536

Auto

28.4 9%

Teleop

215.9 69%

Endgame

66.5 21%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.37 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score24.1pts

Blue projected score329.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -305.1
Score range: 0–353
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.2Season APEX370.5

6.7Auto28.4

-0.2Teleop215.9

6.3Endgame66.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	25
teleop	10	76
endgame	1	60
foul	10	35
total	27	196

Result

Final score

27 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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